Xa khoom rau Qaib Cov Txwv los ntawm Russia: nta, cov kev cai thiab daim ntawv teev. Export ntawm cov khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv rau Russia

2015 yog ib tug tig taw tes nyob rau hauv lub thoob ntiaj teb economic kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv. Lub impetus rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov teeb meem tau ua txhaum Turkish airspace thaj tsam Su-24 Lavxias teb sab aircraft uas coj ib feem nyob rau hauv lub anti-neeg ua phem phiaj los nqis tes nyob rau hauv Syria thiab tom qab xuas phom tua cia los ntawm cov tub rog. Cov tshwm sim ntawm tej kev ua Ankara yog cov kev taw qhia ntawm Moscow tus kev nplua rau tej yam hom ntawm cov khoom thiab cov kev pab cuam exported los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv.

Ntxawg txim kev ua tiv thaiv Ankara twb qhia nyob rau lub kaum ib hlis 2015 los ntawm lub Decree ntawm cov thawj coj ntawm Russia. Ib tug xav paub ntau dua txoj kev npaj kom tsis txhob muaj mov ntawm cov khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv rau Rossiykuyu Federation tau tsim los ntawm tsoom fwv nyob rau hauv cov kev txiav txim siab.

Yuav ua li cas yog cov kev txwv yuam rau lub export ntawm Lavxias teb sab khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv

Txwv rau xa khoom los ntawm lub koom pheej ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv lub Lavxias teb sab Federation mas cuam tshuam cov qoob loo khoom. Cov no muaj xws txiv lws suav, txiv quav ntswv nyoos, tangerines, txiv kab ntxwv, dib, zaub qhwv, dos, apricots, txiv duaj, txiv moj mab, txiv pos nphuab, pos nphuab. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, tsis pub import ntsev, cloves (paj), carcasses ntawm qaib cov txwv, qaib thiab offal ntawm lawv, zom cov pos hniav.

Nyob rau hauv 2015, ib tug lossis loj npaum li ntawm cov khoom noj, uas yog txwv tsis pub raug mas mus ua Russia, tau siv. Xws li ib tug txav, raws li muaj ntau yam, yog tsis ncaj ncees lawm. Nyob rau ntawm lub sij hawm, raws li cais pawg ntawm cov pej xeem yog hauv qab no qhov kev txom nyem txoj kab, nqaij qaib, citrus txiv hmab txiv ntoo, khoom qab zib, mas los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv, tsuas lawm.

Txwv nyob rau hauv lub teb ntawm fisheries

Cov kev tsim kev ntsuas uas yuav siv tau los muab tso siab rau lub Turkish economy twb tau txwv tsis pub rau cov export ntawm cov ntses los ntawm lub koom pheej ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm 2015. Kws txawj lees tias cov kev nplua yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam tsuas yog tus hwm ya ntawm lub fishery khoom tsis cuam tshuam rau tag nrho cov neeg siv lub pob tawb.

Lub ntsiab yam ntawm nqaij ntses nyoo exported los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv yog hiav txwv ntses bass thaj tsam thiab cov hiav txwv bream, lub Scope ntawm kev siv no tsuas siv rau cov khw nojmov nyob rau hauv Russia. Qhov no yog ib tug heev me me ya ntawm lub lag luam, thiab yog li ntawd tsis tau ntawm Lavxias teb sab Federation thiab cov koom pheej ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv yuav tsawg heev.

Rau hnub tim, Qaib ntxhw ntses export rau Russia tsis nres, thiab tsim kev sib raug zoo coj mus muag nyob rau hauv no tus kheej.

Reciprocate lub koom pheej ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv

Muab hais tias lub export txwv yuam los ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab Federation ntawm cov khoom muaj ib tug tseem ceeb feem ntawm qhov ntim ntawm Turkish exports rau Russia, ncaj ncees rau cia siab tias cov lus teb ntawm Ankara kauj ruam ntawm domestic khoom. Tom qab tag nrho, txawv teb chaws nyiaj txiag kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov teb chaws raws li nrog pab export-ntshuam kev sib raug zoo.

Rau hnub tim, Qaib ntxhw rov ua phem rau cov kev nplua rau lub Lavxias teb sab Federation yog tsis nkag mus hauv. Qhov no txoj hauj lwm ntawm Ankara hais txog ib tug ua tau normalization ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm ob lub xeev.

Export ntawm cov khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv rau Russia

Nyob rau hauv dab tsi proportions tau nqa tawm nyob rau hauv 2015, exports ntawm Turkish khoom lub Lavxias teb sab kev ua lag luam? Xa khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv rau Russia (daim ntawv teev cov khoom) yog muab hauv qab no:

• Tus tsov ntxhuav feem ntawm export ntawm Turkish khoom roos khoom noj thiab ua liaj ua teb raw cov ntaub ntawv - ntau tshaj 30% ntawm tag nrho cov xa khoom Turkish rau Russia (citrus txiv hmab txiv ntoo, neeg rau, txiv lws suav, sunflower noob).
• Plaub ntawm lub Turkish export khoom dab tsi rau tsheb cov khoom (tsav tsheb thiab ntawm accessories).
• Hais txog 20% ntawm cov xa khoom occupies textile khoom (khaub ncaws, khau).
• Cov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov tshuaj nyob rau hauv lub export qauv yog 12% (yas khoom, soaps thiab detergents).
• Hlau khoom uas muaj exported nyob rau hauv ib tug npaum li sib npaug zos rau feem pua.
• Minerals thiab lawv cov khoom nyob 2% ntawm tag nrho cov.

Xa khoom rau Qaib Cov Txwv los ntawm Russia

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj rau thaj tsam ntawm export rau Qaib Cov Txwv los ntawm Russia yog lub zog. Lavxias teb sab Federation rau ntau xyoo muab ntau yam pauv loj tagnrho cov roj mus rau lub Turkish territories. Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, Russia "npog" 60% ntawm tag nrho cov zog cov kev xav tau. Ankara yog tsis xav hloov qhov teeb meem no, vim hais tias thaum lub sij hawm ntawd tus lwm yam yog li ntawd, txhim khu kev qha thiab pheej yig qhov chaw ntawm no hom ntawm cov roj tsis yog. Gas kev koom tes nruab nrab ntawm ob States tau heev pheej. Lavxias teb sab Federation twb npaj los tsim kom tau ib daim pipeline. Txawm li cas los, ua hauj lwm tsis tau pib.

Qhov thib ob txoj hauj lwm yog nyob export tus me nyuam ntawm kub-Kuav los tiag thiab roos ntau tshaj kaum cuaj feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov ntshuam Qaib ntxhw hlau. Nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam no, qaib ntxhw nyob rau hauv Lub ib hlis ntuj nyob rau ntawm ib tug anti-Pov Tseg kev tshawb nrhiav, cov kev tshwm sim ntawm uas tau ua cov nqe lus rau cov nyhuv uas cov Lavxias teb sab metallurgical tuam txhab uas muag dumping nyob rau hauv lub Turkish ua lag luam. Qhov no qhov teeb meem no ua rau ib tug txo nyob rau hauv lub competitiveness ntawm lub zos manufacturers ntawm cov hlau. Raws li Lavxias teb sab steelmakers, xws accusations yog groundless thiab dictated los ntawm tus unfavorable nom tswv qhov teeb meem no.

Loj tagnrho (exports rau Qaib Cov Txwv los ntawm Russia) nyob rau hauv lub grain ua lag luam. Txij li thaum 2010, tus nqi sib txawv tsis pub dhau 15-17% ntawm tag nrho cov xov tooj ntawm cov exported grain. Dua li ntawm qhov yooj yim kev sib raug zoo ntawm ob lub xeev no niaj hnub no los ntawm Lavxias teb sab grain exports rau Qaib Cov Txwv nqa tawm. Tag nrho cov kos npe cog lus rau export ntawm Lavxias teb sab grain yog nqa tawm, tshaj tej ntawm, cov tshiab.

Nws yog tsim nyog yuav qhia tau tias nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd mus rau saum toj pawg ntawm cov khoom, xa khoom rau Qaib Cov Txwv ntawm Lavxias teb sab tub rog cov khoom kuj implies, yog tsis officially publicized, tab sis ib tug tseem ceeb feem ntawm tag nrho cov ntim. Zuag qhia tag nrho, Russia feem nyob rau hauv Qaib Cov Txwv lub exports yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 10%.

Lub peev feem ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab-Turkish teeb meem

Long-term kev sib koom tes ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab Federation thiab cov koom pheej ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv tau tsim ib tug dej siab kev nyab xeeb rau sawv daws pab peev tej yaam num nyob rau ob sab. Tagnrho ntawm kev nqis peev rau hauv kev khwv nyiaj txiag ntawm lub teb chaws tawm tsam hnub no yog kwv yees li ntawm $ 500 lab nrog rau cov Turkish sab thiab 1.75 lab los ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab. Tshwj xeeb yog problematic rau lub Lavxias teb sab zog sector peev seem. Lub tuam txhab "Lukoil", "Inter RAO" thiab "Rosatom" ho ua lag luam nyob rau hauv lub zog sector ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv.

Nyob rau hauv kev twb kev txuas nrog cov teeb meem ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv problematic teeb meem yog cov nrhiav nyob rau hauv 2012 los ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab "Sberbank" Turkish DenizBank. Qhov kawg ntawm 2015 tus Lavxias teb sab chaw hauj lwm ntawm "Sberbank" tau ua txoj haujlwm ntsuam xyuas nyiaj Turkish kev lag luam thiab ua hauj lwm pab ntau tshaj 5 million cov neeg muas zaub.

Tub rog teeb meem ho cuam tshuam rau nyiaj txiag qhov teeb meem ntawm ob lub teb chaws. Sphere cuam tshuam los ntawm cov kev taw qhia ntawm anti-Turkish txim, yuav tau piav rau hauv qab no.

tourism

Medal Decree unilaterally qhia ib tug de facto txiav npluav rau tourism nyob rau hauv Qaib Cov Txwv. Muab lub climatic tej yam kev mob ntawm lub Turkish koom pheej, cov ndlwg ntawm tourists los ntawm Russia rau teb chaws no yog tsis txiav thaum lub sij hawm tag nrho lub xyoo. Tej losses rau lub tourism kev lag luam ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv trudnovospolnimy. Nyob rau hauv cov nyiaj txiag nqe lus lub teb chaws tau poob txog $ 10 billion txhua txhua xyoo.

siv cov kev faib Sector

Ib tug tshwj xeeb qhov chaw nyob rau hauv cov qauv ntawm cov export ntawm cov khoom los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv rau Russia nyob rau hauv lub tsev ntaub ntawv uas kom huv si kov yeej Lavxias teb sab tau txais kev pab. Tab sis qhov tseem mob yog tus txiav npluav nyob rau kev siv, lub tuam txhab kev pab, cov kev tswj uas yog nqa tawm los ntawm Turkish pej xeem. Nws los ua mob vim lub fact tias txawv teb chaws tsim kho tuam txhab uas muag tau pov thawj lawv tus kheej rau xyoo nrog lub zoo tshaj plaws tes.

Ib tug txiav npluav rau txhua yam ntawm kev tsim kho cov kev pab cuam rau Turkish tuam txhab uas muag yog ib tug tangible chaw khuam siab rau cov kev loj hlob ntxiv ntawm no kheej nyob rau hauv Russia raws li ib tug tag nrho. Mitigating zoo tshaj yuav yog hais tias cov ntawv cog lus kos npe nrog Turkish tuam txhab uas muag kom txog rau thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2015, yuav muab los siv nyob rau hauv tag nrho.

Lub txim ntawm lub imposition ntawm kev nplua

Trade kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv rau xyoo muaj ib tug kev loj hlob kev xav. Qhov tseeb yog paub tseeb hais tias los ntawm lub general khoom turnover ntawm ob lub teb chaws nyob rau hauv cov kev tshwm sim ntawm 2014. General kev npaj rau lub expansion ntawm luam kev sib raug zoo envisaged rau kom turnover mus txog 2023, mus rau ib tug ntim ntawm 100 billion dollars. Thiab nws yog tiag tiag. Lub neej ntawm hnub no yog hais tias qhov kev nce nyob rau hauv turnover tsis tshwm sim, thiab nyob rau nws lub ntsej muag ib tug tseem ceeb poob.

Aggravation ntawm nom tswv kev sib raug zoo kuj cuam tshuam lub unrealized tes num rau qhov kev siv ntawm cov Dub hiav txwv roj pipeline "Turkish kwj". Cov qhabnias ntawm cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev nplua los ntawm Russia tiv thaiv Qaib ntxhw yuav muaj nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm 2016. Txawm li cas los, niaj hnub no nws yog tseeb hais tias tej yam ua yuav cia ob tog rau diversify lub ciaj uas muag rau cov khoom thiab cov kev pab cuam.

dab tsi tau

Nws hloov cov qauv ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab exports rau Qaib Cov Txwv, uas pab cov kev nce rau hauv tus nqi. Dog dig Russians xws txim Ameslikas "mus tshaj" rau hauv lub sawv nyob rau hauv nqe ntawm txiv hmab txiv ntoo thiab zaub. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, xws nkaus los mus tshem tawm yuam Turkish manufacturers rau cov zaub mov ua lag luam yuav boost lub smuggling.

Ib tug zoo nam nyob rau hauv imposing txim yog qhov tseeb hais tias lub dag txos concurrency pib yuav cia domestic manufacturers coj khoob me me khoom noj khoom haus cov khoom. Tseem, muaj ib tug deposit. Tom qab tag nrho, kev ua lag luam tej yam kev mob yuav tsum muaj kev pov plob nyob sib txeeb uas tsim ib tug noj qab nyob zoo thiab zoo khoom.

Zog ntawm Guj kuj - Qaib ntxhw (txawv teb chaws - exports)

Thaum Ntsuam xyuas cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov thawj lub hlis ntawm 2016 nws yuav tau hais tias cov kev taw qhia ntawm cov zaub mov cov kev nplua rau qaib ntxhw coj mus rau ib tug nco nyob rau hauv Turkish exports rau Russia ntau tshaj 64%. Tsis tas li ntawd, muaj teeb meem loj cov kev hloov nyob rau hauv qhov nqi koj tshuav ntawm txawv teb chaws rau Qaib Cov Txwv ntawm Lavxias teb sab khoom. Yog hais tias nyob rau hauv 2015 lub Lavxias teb sab Federation coj qhov chaw cog qoob loo nyob rau hauv sab saum toj kaum importing lub teb chaws Ankara khoom, niaj hnub no cov nqi tau tsis yeem ho.

Raws li muaj leej twg paub los ntawm lub Turkish ua hauj lwm, lub deterioration ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv yuav muaj nqis ib tug thib ob txog 0.3-0.4% ntawm GDP. Txwv nyob rau ib feem ntawm Ankara yog yuav luag tsis-existent, thiab Moscow tau yuam tseem ceeb txwv. Txawm li cas los, nws tsis yeem thiab xa khoom rau Qaib Cov Txwv los ntawm Russia.

Nws yog vam hais tias tsis ntev cov nom tswv teeb meem yuav tsum daws. Nyob rau hauv lem, tus economic teeb meem no yuav txhim kho thiab, export thiab ntshuam los ntawm Russia thiab Qaib Cov Txwv nyob li qub.